A budget under pressure
Federal Budget 2026-27Delivered against an uncertain economic backdrop, the 2026-27 Federal Budget reflects a government navigating competing pressures.
Federal Budget 2026-27: expert insights on spending, tax reform and policy impacts. Visit hub.
The budget delivered a $727m operating surplus in 2025-26, which would be the first budget surplus in more than 5 years. A $1.05b surplus is projected in 2026-27.
Net debt is forecast to be approximately $175.6b in 2026-27 and will continue to rise, with it estimated to reach $199.3b by 2029-30. Interest costs are approaching $9b per year. Unemployment remains below the long-term, pre-pandemic average, currently sitting at 4.8 per cent.
Key risks to the current economic outlook include global uncertainty, higher interest rates and cost of living pressures.
With no new taxes introduced, the Victorian Budget has forecasted an increase to tax revenue collection of $43b in 2026-2027 and expecting to increase to $50b by 2029-2030.
Land tax revenue is projected to generate $6.5b in revenue in 2027 and stamp duty is expected to reach $10b – a downgrade in the last Budget’s forecast of $10.6b. This downward forecast has been attributed to a decline in property market and rising interest rates stifling market price growth.
In this year’s budget, announced changes to duty and payroll tax thresholds include:
If you wish to discuss the above budget announcements, please reach out to a Grant Thornton Partner today.
Delivered against an uncertain economic backdrop, the 2026-27 Federal Budget reflects a government navigating competing pressures.
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