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By: Kristina Popova, Nick Mellos
06 May 20264 min read
The budget delivered a $727m operating surplus in 2025-26, which would be the first budget surplus in more than 5 years. A $1.05b surplus is projected in 2026-27.
Net debt is forecast to be approximately $175.6b in 2026-27 and will continue to rise, with it estimated to reach $199.3b by 2029-30. Interest costs are approaching $9b per year. Unemployment remains below the long-term, pre-pandemic average, currently sitting at 4.8 per cent.
Key risks to the current economic outlook include global uncertainty, higher interest rates and cost of living pressures.
With no new taxes introduced, the Victorian Budget has forecasted an increase to tax revenue collection of $43b in 2026-2027 and expecting to increase to $50b by 2029-2030.
Land tax revenue is projected to generate $6.5b in revenue in 2027 and stamp duty is expected to reach $10b – a downgrade in the last Budget’s forecast of $10.6b. This downward forecast has been attributed to a decline in property market and rising interest rates stifling market price growth.
In this year’s budget, announced changes to duty and payroll tax thresholds include:
If you wish to discuss the above budget announcements, please reach out to a Grant Thornton Partner today.
Explore how the Federal Budget 2026–27 reshapes M&A in Australia, with CGT changes, trust tax reforms and implications for deal structuring and transaction timing.
In this episode of Beyond the Numbers with Grant Thornton, Corporate and International Tax Partner Vince Tropiano unpacks the changes one week on, covering what was announced, key structuring considerations and, most importantly, why a conversation with your adviser to model potential implications is the best place to start.
Proposed changes to discretionary trust taxation in the 2026–27 Federal Budget could drive restructures – but stamp duty risks may be significant. Explore key considerations before transferring assets.
