New South Wales Budget spends on health and schools, with slower growth ahead
Client AlertThe NSW Budget 2026 focuses on health and education spending, with slower growth forecasts, rising debt and targeted foreign investor duty relief measures.
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It has been just over eleven years since the Gillard Government introduced the Living Longer Living Better (LLLB) reforms, unlocking significant ‘new money’ from private equity investment, driving consolidation of providers such as Japara Healthcare, Estia Health and Regis Health. With Regis Health now the only publicly listed provider remaining after Bain Capital acquired Estia Health, and Calvary Health Care delisted Japarra Healthcare’s shares from the public market as part of its acquisition, this highlights how investment and financial pressures will continue to shape provider decisions under the new Act.
The LLLB reforms also introduced a refurbishment program that offers higher accommodation supplements to providers who improved residential care facilities. It promised ‘universal care for all who needed it’ and was successful, until funding pressures began limiting investment for 2017.
Since the Act’s launch on 1 November 2025, several early trends are emerging that illustrate both opportunities and pressure points for providers:
Hundreds of thousands of dedicated workers continue delivering essential care to vulnerable older Australians.
Few, if any, older Australians currently in hospitals in need of a residential care placement have been transferred to residential care.
Only a small portion of the 80,000 new Support at Home packages have been allocated so far, despite around 125,000 people awaiting support.
Enhanced consumer protections have raised regulatory requirements for providers, particularly Support at Home providers. While co-contribution may offset some costs, administrative expenses can outweigh revenue if not managed carefully.
Retentions for RADs have been reintroduced, and approved RAD amounts have increased. Retention amount are 2 per cent per year, capped at five years, and with the average stay under two years, providers may capture around four per year of individual RAD balances. Despite this, many providers remain cautious about progressing new capital projects.
While the LLLB reforms previously unlocked capital for mergers, acquisitions, and refurbishments, the new Act has introduced uncertainty around a provider’s ability to generate capital – prompting some to delay investments required to meet future bed demand.
The transition to the new Act presents an opportunity for the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, and the Aged Care Quality and Safety Commission, to work collaboratively with providers. Clear communication of expectations and practical guidance can help providers navigate the early implementation period. Recognising the short implementation timeframes and providing supportive frameworks will be key to helping providers adapt effectively.
Delivering safe, high-quality services to older Australians requires strong, sustainable and morally responsible aged care providers and staff. While the Act aims to reinforce this, profitability, access to capital, and investment confidence will ultimately determine whether providers can meet residential demand.
There’s growing concern that price caps and increased regulatory obligations under the Support at Home reforms will weaken providers, who may be reluctant to pursue growth opportunities. Some providers are already reconsidering their role in the sector.
What remains clear is the dedication of aged care leaders and workers, who continue to deliver care with professionalism and compassion. Time will tell whether the new Act achieves community expectations, and what further refinements may be needed to ensure a sustainable aged care system.
If you’d like to understand what the new Act means for your organisation and how to respond confidently, please reach out.
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