Retail Dealtracker 2026: selectivity, scale and strategic advantage

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Australia’s retail M&A market is becoming increasingly selective, with capital concentrated around fewer, more strategic transactions. While operating conditions have stabilised since the volatility of 2022–23, sustained cost pressures, cautious consumer behaviour and geopolitical uncertainty continue to shape deal activity and investor priorities.

This report examines the transactions, trends and market conditions influencing retail deal activity up to 31 December 2025. Drawing on insights from Australia and global markets, it explores how retailers, investors and strategic buyers are responding to a more disciplined capital environment where scale, operational resilience and earnings visibility are becoming increasingly important drivers of valuation and transaction outcomes.

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Key themes across the report include:

Scale and consolidation

Deal volume moderating from 201 transactions in 2023 to 139 in 2025, alongside a shift toward higher-value, more strategic transactions including Chemist Warehouse/Sigma Healthcare, Myer/Just Group and Amart/Freedom Furniture.

Vertical integration

Growing emphasis on procurement efficiency, supply chain control and distribution capability across Food, Pharmacy and Home & Hardware.

Selective capital deployment

Capital increasingly directed toward businesses with resilient earnings, strong cash generation and greater execution certainty, rather than cyclical growth exposure.

International investment

Continued inbound interest in scaled Australian consumer brands, driven by strong market positions, resilient earnings profiles and export potential.

Technology and operating models

The shift away from standalone digital platforms toward technology embedded within operating and physical infrastructure.

The findings point to a market defined less by transaction volume and more by strategic intent, where capital is increasingly directed toward businesses with defensible market positions, operational strength and scalable business models.

As retailers and investors consider acquisition, divestment, capital raising or broader strategic repositioning, understanding where capital is flowing and why is becoming increasingly important in shaping outcomes. Download the report to explore the latest retail M&A trends and what they mean for your business, and please reach out if you would like to discuss further.